Latest CFTC/COT figures (of Dec 17th)

COT data of Dec 17th 2013

Note that Commercials have changed stance in Cotton in quite a big way - after staying for several weeks near square, they are cutting longs and adding considerably to shorts.

In Sugar, the reverse is happening - Commercials are adding to longs and severely cutting shorts. In Coffee, they're acting the same as Cotton, although not so obviously - cutting longs and adding to shorts.

In Copper, they're much less enthusiastic than they were 4 - 5 weeks ago, cutting longs and adding to shorts, and moving to barely long overall.

Common Sense? or is it just me?

H.L. Mencken once said that a cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.

Latest CFTC/COT figures indicate possible change of trend for Gold ...

COT data of Nov 12th 2013 - Comex Gold [GC]

Total o/i  403840 (highest since July); spreads 29266 (= 7.2%) (also the highest since July). Closing price (spot) on Nov 12th: 1268.60

Nett differences:

Commercials -65785 (from -93900)  Large Specs +61352 (from +91136)  Small Specs +4433 (from +2764)

Proportions:

Commercials (59.6% of total o/i, from 62.1% last week) - 50.8% of Longs (from 49.2, and 47.9 two weeks ago); 68.4% of Shorts (from 75.1, and 77.1 two weeks ago); balance minus 17.6 (from minus 25.9, and minus 29.2 two weeks ago)

 
Large Specs (30.3% of total, from 28.5% last week) - 38.5% of Longs (from 41.0 and 42.0), 22.1% of Shorts (from 15.9 and 14.6), balance plus 16.4 (from plus 25.1 and 27.4)
 
Small Specs (10.1% of total, from 9.4% last week) - 10.7% of Longs (from 9.8), 9.5% of Shorts (from 9.0), balance plus 1.2 (from plus 0.8) 

Comments: Spreads tend to increase at times of doubt, or (sometime) at times of a significant change of trend. Small Specs appear to have comparatively little influence on this market, and seem to be right as often as they are wrong - so probably should not be taken as a Contrary Indicator, as they would be in other markets. Commercials (who generally take a mid- to long-term view of the market) have been moving longer, while remaining overall short. Large Specs (who tend to reflect the market trend) have been cutting Longs and adding considerably to Shorts (while remaining overall long). As usual, we prefer to follow the Commercials, even though their view may take some time to come to fruition. 

[ See also http://spasmodicinspiration.blogspot.co.uk/ ]

Negativity in the press ...

Mark Dampier, Head of Research at Hargreaves Lansdown, writes "it is now my 30th year in the investment industry, and during that time investors have been consistent in writing off their own stock market. Perhaps it's because we see more news on the UK economy, and the press tends to focus on the negative aspects."

Brokerage Reports - and their dangers ...

Bear in mind that large, popular stocks are subject to more frequent unexpected price moves as analysts' reports are published - the more widely covered a stock is, the more likely a forecast will come as a shock

Fear and Greed ...

Bear in mind - fear does not invariably relate to having to take a loss - there is also the fear of being left out, of missing an opportunity, in which case it is not the opposite to greed, in this case they co-exist ...

Here's a challenge for traders .... [re the Nobel Prize for Economics]

(Reuters) - Three American scientists won the 2013 economics Nobel prize on Monday for research that has improved the forecasting of long term asset prices, a hot topic since the collapse of the U.S. housing market bubble prompted a global financial meltdown.

"There is no way to predict the price of stocks and bonds over the next few days or weeks," The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said in awarding the 8 million crown (781,885 thousand pounds) prize to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller.

"But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of these prices over longer periods, such as the next three to five years. These findings ... were made and analyzed by this year's Laureates," the academy said.

Common Sense - when will Britain catch up? (or catch on ... )

I read that "At least six of the ten largest U.S. homebuilders include or offer solar panels in new construction".

Some interesting thoughts from a CFTC Board Member

 
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/opachilton-94

Rather rambling - probably better heard than read - but the sections headed 'Shark Tank' and 'Mythbusters' include some interesting comments (and perhaps pointers to the future) ...

I read that, according to the World Gold Council, a massive 797 tons of gold left London and headed for Switzerland in the first half of this year. It appears that the bullion is being melted down into more manageable sizes, presumably to appeal to small investors. More news and stats on
http://www.gold.org/investment/research/regular_reports/gold_demand_trends/?gclid=COnQ8eiKj7kCFa7JtAodR0YAVA

Interesting piece on the "Hindenburg Omen" and NYSE 52-week high & lows, at
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Puplava-130814-Hindenburg-Omen.php

FTSE SHORT ETF

Note the volume on the FTSE short ETF [XUKS] picked up very sharply Friday.

Thoughts on Gold

Based on the figures I use, I note that the 20D SMA is now comfortably above the 50D (first time since early Nov 2012). Next thing/s I'll be watching are a break above the recent high (1348.65), a close above the recent high close (1345.20), and a change in direction (upwards) of the 50D SMA (as long as the spot price remains above it).

Don't try to short a dull market - it just isn't worth it ...

Better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out ...