COT data of Nov 12th 2013 - Comex Gold [GC]
Commercials -65785 (from -93900) Large Specs +61352 (from +91136) Small Specs +4433 (from +2764)
Proportions:
Commercials (59.6% of total o/i, from 62.1% last week) - 50.8% of Longs (from 49.2, and 47.9 two weeks ago); 68.4% of Shorts (from 75.1, and 77.1 two weeks ago); balance minus 17.6 (from minus 25.9, and minus 29.2 two weeks ago)
Large Specs (30.3% of total, from 28.5% last week) - 38.5% of Longs (from 41.0 and 42.0), 22.1% of Shorts (from 15.9 and 14.6), balance plus 16.4 (from plus 25.1 and 27.4)
Small Specs (10.1% of total, from 9.4% last week) - 10.7% of Longs (from 9.8), 9.5% of Shorts (from 9.0), balance plus 1.2 (from plus 0.8)
Comments: Spreads tend to increase at times of doubt, or (sometime) at times of a significant change of trend. Small Specs appear to have comparatively little influence on this market, and seem to be right as often as they are wrong - so probably should not be taken as a Contrary Indicator, as they would be in other markets. Commercials (who generally take a mid- to long-term view of the market) have been moving longer, while remaining overall short. Large Specs (who tend to reflect the market trend) have been cutting Longs and adding considerably to Shorts (while remaining overall long). As usual, we prefer to follow the Commercials, even though their view may take some time to come to fruition.
[ See also http://spasmodicinspiration.blogspot.co.uk/ ]
